Utility of Polygenic Risk Scoring to Predict Cognitive Impairment as Measured by Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite Score.

Background: The utility of Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) is gaining increasing attention for generating an individual genetic risk profile to predict subsequent likelihood of future onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD), especially those carry two copies of the APOE E3 allele, currently considered at neutral risk in all populations studied. Objectives: To access the performance of PRS in predicting individuals whilst pre-symptomatic or with mild cognitive impairment who are at greatest risk of progression of cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's Disease from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) as measured by the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC) score profile. Design: A longitudinal analysis of data from the ADNI study conducted across over 50 sites in the US and Canada. Setting: Multi-centre genetics study. Participants: 594 subjects either APOE E3 homozygotes or APOE E3/E4 heterozygotes who upon entry to the study were diagnosed as cognitively normal or with mild cognitive impairment. Measurements: Use of genotyping and/or whole genome sequencing data to calculate polygenic risk scores and assess its ability to predict subsequent cognitive decline as measured by PACC over 5 years. Results: Assessing both cognitively normal and mild cognitive impaired subjects using a PRS threshold of greater than 0.6, the high genetic risk participant group declined more than the low risk group over 5 years as measured by PACC score (PACC score reduced by time). Conclusions: Our findings have shown that polygenic risk score provides a promising tool to identify those with higher risk to decline over 5 years regardless of their APOE alleles according to modified PACC profile, especially its ability to identify APOE3/E3 cognitively normal individuals who are at most risk for early cognitive decline. This genotype accounts for approximately 60% of the general population and 35% of the AD population but currently would not be considered at higher risk without access to expensive or invasive biomarker testing.

Polygenic Risk Scoring is an Effective Approach to Predict Those Individuals Most Likely to Decline Cognitively Due to Alzheimer's Disease.

BACKGROUND: There is a clear need for simple and effective tests to identify individuals who are most likely to develop Alzheimer's Disease (AD) both for the purposes of clinical trial recruitment but also for improved management of patients who may be experiencing early pre-clinical symptoms or who have clinical concerns. OBJECTIVES: To predict individuals at greatest risk of progression of cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's Disease in individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) using a polygenic risk scoring algorithm. To compare the performance of a PRS algorithm in predicting cognitive decline against that of using the pTau/Aß1-42 ratio CSF biomarker profile. DESIGN: A longitudinal analysis of data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study conducted across over 50 sites in the US and Canada. SETTING: Multi-center genetics study. PARTICPANTS: 515 subjects who upon entry to the study were diagnosed as cognitively normal or with mild cognitive impairment. MEASUREMENTS: Use of genotyping and/or whole genome sequencing data to calculate polygenic risk scores and assess ability to predict subsequent cognitive decline as measured by CDR-SB and ADAS-Cog13 over 4 years. RESULTS: The overall performance for predicting those individuals who would decline by at least 15 ADAS-Cog13 points from a baseline mild cognitive impairment in 4 years was 72.8% (CI:67.9-77.7) AUC increasing to 79.1% (CI: 75.6-82.6) when also including cognitively normal participants. Assessing mild cognitive impaired subjects only and using a threshold of greater than 0.6, the high genetic risk participant group declined, on average, by 1.4 points (CDR-SB) more than the low risk group over 4 years. The performance of the PRS algorithm tested was similar to that of the pTau/Aß1-42 ratio CSF biomarker profile in predicting cognitive decline. CONCLUSION: Calculating polygenic risk scores offers a simple and effective way, using DNA extracted from a simple mouth swab, to select mild cognitively impaired patients who are most likely to decline cognitively over the next four years.